Okay, the state polls are starting to catch up with events, so let’s have a look at the field.

The chart above is the one we’re watching most closely — it shows the electoral-vote count in states where either candidate leads by more than 5 percent. (We’re treating everything else as a statistical dead heat.) State polls aren’t released as frequently as national dailies, and this chart averages polling over the past seven days, so there’s gonna be some lag in the results.

And if you want to say that Obama drove off a cliff after the Republican convention — wait a sec.

Certainly more states are in play at the moment, which shouldn’t be unexpected. We’ll need another week, after the hysteria dies down, to see whether that’s a blip or a fact.

But what catches our attention — provisionally, it’s still early — is that McCain hasn’t made any significant gain. You’d expect the lines to cross right about now, and granted, they still might. But so far, the takeaway is that while voters aren’t certain about Obama, they don’t seem to have much stomach for the alternative.

For comparison, let’s look at 2004:

So much bobbing and weaving there, it might as well be a toss-up — nothing approaching the clarity of this year’s pattern.

And that’s one reason why we’re not freaking out yet — it’s just too soon to hit the eject button, and nothing’s yet outside our comfort zone. Circumstances may change in another week, but the only bump we’re seeing so far is a speed bump for Barry.

Electoral College Graphs 2008 [Electoral-Vote.com]

Live from Wasilla [Band of Thebes, via Sully]

Back in our distant childhood, Joe McCarthy was even more distant, someone you would see, if at all, in a scratchy kinescope clip. He was as quaint as a war movie, as irrelevant as the Andrews Sisters.

We knew about “McCarthyism” long before we knew about McCarthy. The word, if not the man, was relevant in the political climate of our youth. It was used with derision. It was something to avoid. It was the L Word of its day.

Joe came to mind as we were contemplating Barry’s response to McCain’s Rovian attack ads. It seems a tepid response at first, not at all what’s required. It’s not angry.

I don’t care what they say about me, but I love this country too much to let them take over another election with lies and phony outrage and swift-boat politics. Enough is enough.

Well, fine, we were thinking, but civility doesn’t win elections. Get out the rhetorical bat, whack some rhetorical kneecaps. Politics is bloodsport, violence punctuated by consultant meetings. Man up.

But then we remembered the line that finally broke Bomber Joe’s winning streak:

“Until this moment, Senator, I think I never really gauged your cruelty or your recklessness… You’ve done enough. Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? Have you left no sense of decency?”

And just like that — in that very moment — it was over. Joseph Welch slayed the dragon.

It’s a risky strategy in the hothouse timeframe of a fall presidential campaign, but hey, it’s risky running as a black man in These United States. We want to see more, we want to see it expressed with more conviction. But the more egregious McCain’s attacks get — and they will, Rovians can’t help themselves — the more righteous civility just might carry the day.

Obama On Lipstick Controversy: Attacks Media, Says “Enough Is Enough” [TPM]

Yes, McCain made a decision that revealed many appalling things about him. In the end, his final concern is not national security. No one who cares about national security would pick as vice-president someone who knows nothing about it as his replacement. No one who cares about this country’s safety would gamble the security of the world on a total unknown because she polled well with the Christianist base. No person who truly believed that the surge was integral to this country’s national security would pick as his veep candidate a woman who, so far as we can tell anything, opposed it at the time.

McCain has demonstrated in the last two months that he does not have the character to be president of the United States.

Nobody’s listening to him either, but it’s fun to watch him stew.

McCain’s Integrity [Atlantic]

No, we’re not talking about the idiots cheering on a teleprompter jockey because they’ve suddenly become fans of Lifetime biopics. We’re talking about the people who fear those idiots.

We’re talking about, as a Kos commenter aptly described it, Palin Panic Anxiety.

Word to the wise: Take a long, slow, deep breath. Repeat all week, if necessary.

And now, let’s address the facts:

• McCain chose Palin to appease the fundamentalist power brokers in his party. The gambit worked, and she is more popular than he is among the idiiot faithful. If anything, the power brokers are now warning Geezer not to distance himself from her divisive religious views.
• The idiot faithful are beyond redemption. Write them off. Now. They are not susceptible to reality, and they never were. They will swallow the spin as given, and even fill in their own spin when guidance from McCain’s Rovian puppetmasters is not available. For further details, consult the evolution of Greek mythology.
• We’re still riding a very big wave from a very big performance. It’s going to continue cresting this week, and it might even last into the next. It’s going to consume all attention from the media, and from supporters and opponents. That is the nature of these things, and there is no point wasting energy on resisting. Ride it out.

Meanwhile, the prosecution’s case grows day by day, as Chainsaw’s series of posts amply demonstrate. These things will gain no traction right now, but they are on the record, and will start seeping into general consciousness once the initial novelty and enthusiasm wanes. Americans get bored very quickly, and once they’ve had their fill of Maverick Hockey Mom, they’ll need some fresh news to keep them interested.

That’s when we’ll start hearing The Rest of the Story, and that’s when doubt will begin to disturb the Fabled Undecided, those who are enjoying the show right now but aren’t committed to the plot. Think Heroes and Lost, initially wildly popular but stumbling after their first seasons. In presidential politics, the second season comes very quickly.

We’re on the verge of setting up a spreadsheet to keep track of all this, but here’s the latest in Talibunny: The Sarah Palin Chronicles…

An Anchorage judge three years ago warned Sarah Palin and members of her family to stop “disparaging” the reputation of Alaska State Trooper Michael Wooten, who at the time was undergoing a bitter separation and divorce from Palin’s sister Molly.

How bitter? Trooper Wooten — try saying that without attracting half the birds within earshot — was the subject of twelve complaints to state police by assorted Palins. Talibunny was between jobs at the time, and the judge saw no need to treat her with deference. “Disparaging will not be tolerated — it is a form of child abuse,” he said at a settlement hearing.

And he meant it. If the Palin Posse didn’t back off, he threatened to send the kid to daddy instead.

Warned by the Court [Newsweek]

“Obama’s one accomplishment? Legislation to teach ‘comprehensive sex education’ to kindergartners. Learning about sex before learning to read?”

Of course the ad blatantly distorts the facts of the matter, but let’s not worry about nuance at the moment. John McCain is staking his claim in the gutter. Gloves off, Gentleman Barry.

New McCain Ad Falsely Suggests Obama Wants Kids To Learn “About Sex Before Learning To Read” [TPM]