Guess Who’s Coming to Mitt’s Dinner

CBS:

Mitt Romney’s campaign declined to say Friday if it was appropriate for the presumptive Republican nominee to use Donald Trump as a top surrogate as the reality television host continues to insist President Obama was not born in the United States…

A spokesman for the Romney campaign referred back to comments the former Massachusetts governor made when previously asked about Trump’s views.

This may be the most absurd campaign in memory. Including Ross Perot.

If Romney keeps up this shit Obama will win. Campaign Mittbot 3000 Inc. is too detached to realize that half the country thinks this guy is a complete asshole.

@nojo: Caprica TJ–is Meg Tilly the Sister STO chick? (Yes, I know I could check IMDB, but I enjoy public praise and shame.)

@nojo: Never mind. Dammit!

Didn’t you mean “Guess Who’s Combing Over”?

“Oh I can see you brought some herb for me, Natty Dreadlocks.”

@nojo: Then why do the few political headlines I browse scream at me “neck and neck, it’s anybody’s race!“?

@Beggars Biscuit:
Easy, the MSM wants a horserace not a farce.

@Beggars Biscuit: Besides what ManchuCandidate said, I don’t think they’re looking at the electoral college politics of it. Also keep in mind as to how skewed poll results are because of the demographics of who has land-lines these days. Very few outfits (probably just the campaigns) are doing nuanced polling and analysis looking at all likely voters, not just those who are in their home to answer a house phone. I think that’s why the Obama campaign is focusing in Arizona – they have figured out something that apparently the MSM and talking heads can’t figure out.

I don’t want to sound cocky, because a lot can happen in five months and you can never underestimate the GOP’s ability to steal an election or fuck with the stock market or smile as Iran sets off a bomb.

@Beggars Biscuit: @SanFranLefty: And even when they do mention the electoral college, they say, well, you can’t trust state polls, and only the nationals give you the representative snapshot.

And, really, it is too early to look closely at state polls — they’re seldom, and civilians aren’t paying attention to the race. But it’s also too early to sweat national polls: If you wanna be strict about it, wait until September.

Me, I’ll probably get a head start in July, but only in terms of establishing a baseline. Following the EC estimates kept me sane last time around: You could see why Psychogeezer needed a desperate veep choice to keep his hopes alive. He was thoroughly tanking.

@Beggars Biscuit: @SanFranLefty: Let’s play this out…

In my lifetime, only two sitting presidents have been denied re-election: Jimmy and Poppy. (Jerry doesn’t count, although you could work him into the same premise. Same with Shrub, who was symbolically denied a third term.)

So, setting numbers aside, what conditions apply?

1) The incumbent is deeply resented by his base. Teddy ran from Jimmy’s left; Perot from Poppy’s right.

2) The incumbent also isn’t that popular in general — there’s a broad resentment, if not as focused.

3) The challenger is extraordinary: Ronnie and Bubba. (And, for that matter, Jimmy and Barry.)

So: Although the Left is wide-open, nobody resents Barry, aside from Greenwald and a few other malcontents. And although Mitt is doing the best Ronnie he can, nobody’s rallying around him. Whatever he offers, it’s not Hope. Mitt’s a manufactured Boy Band, not the real thing.

Yes, well, the Economy, blah-blah-blah. Which is true. But Barry’s not taking the hit for it — he’s not being blamed. So Mitt’s pitch comes down to the notion that he could do marginally better. It’s not like he inspires anybody.

I’m not so full of myself like Taibbi to declare the whole thing a farce: In a marginal election, Barry could still lose the margins. But I’m still calling it an electoral landslide until I see something that changes my mind.

@nojo: Cogent analysis, Noj. I wan’t to see Barry start hitting hard and strategically, though. Bain, to my mind, is a non-starter- it opens him up to the class warfare arguement. They need to start with “47th in job creation” and, more importantly, “architect of Obamacare” pretty soon. The Bain strategy looks like what it is: an ad hominem attack without much relevance. After all, what do you expect a venture capitalist firm to do, hire more people and take a loss? It doesn’t work that way, and everybody knows is. Corey Booker was right: it just lowers the tone of the discussion, and baby, that tone is low enough already.

@Tommmcatt May Just Have Some MJ In His System As Well, So What?: Conventional wisdom is that you save your best shots for after Labor Day. Right now Obama’s playing Theme of the Week: It lays a foundation, but I don’t think he’s made his best pitch yet.

Regarding Bain: I suspect the target audience is two thousand miles east of us, and I don’t have an intuitive take on whether it plays with them.

Also regarding Bain: Obama’s playing it because it’s all that Mitt is running on. Thanks to Rove, attacking your opponent’s perceived strengths is standard politics these days.

And Massachusetts? We may yet see a Romneycare play — but Obamacare was designed to lay low until after the election (with some exceptions), and it’s hard to run on something that doesn’t yet exist. For that matter, we may yet see a Jobs play — long summer ahead, and plenty of Weekly Themes yet to explore.

Oops. Almost put myself to sleep. Then again, maybe The Most Boring Campaign in Living Memory is a good thing.

Let’s check in with AP:

If the election were today, Obama would likely win 247 electoral votes to Romney’s 206, according to an Associated Press analysis of polls, ad spending and key developments in states, along with interviews with more than a dozen Republican and Democratic strategists both inside and outside of the two campaigns.

A few too many subjective variables for my taste, but it’s consistent with everything else I’ve seen: Obama is just 23 electoral votes short of a lock, and well ahead of Mitt.

And AP’s headline? “Warning signs for Obama on path to electoral votes”. Right.