Rove Predicts an Obama Win…

…if Mitt Romney loses Ohio. According to Karl Rove’s own final prediction for Fox News. If you look at the numbers, Obama wins with 271 if he takes Ohio, according to Rove.

Considering Karl Rove’s job is GOP spin, it’s pretty significant that he doesn’t give Mitt a path to victory without Ohio. And when you consider that Nate Silver has Obama ahead by three in Ohio, and the even the Rightward leaning Rasmussen has that race tied, Rove’s view of the election isn’t that rosy for Republicans. Oh, one more thing: Rove’s map has Romney winning 6 of the 8 states that Fox has declared tossups, a tall order given that Obama leads Romney in 23 of 26 polls in swing states.

Will that make tonight any less brutally agonizing? Probably not. I still haven’t decided if I’m staying up to watch, or or downing a few cocktails and putting myself to sleep before the results start rolling in.

14 Comments

Latest volley in the War on Math.

One nice thing about the Left Coast: Staying up “late” is still midnight-ish. Happened to catch David Brinkley’s 2000 meltdown, because it was only after eleven here.

Depends on whether my friends drink up all my booze.

And here’s Dick Morris predicting a Romney landslide:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/1947655634001/behind-dick-morris-big-romney-victory-prediction/?intcmp=obinsite

Which, if history is any guide, means we’re looking at an Obama landslide.

@Serolf Divad: I have this fantasy that Fox declares Mitt the winner and spends the next four years in sheer alternate reality, as opposed to merely hanging on by a thread.

@nojo:

LOL, maybe they’ll set up a government in exile on the wreckage of the Deepwater Horizon.

@Serolf Divad: Then sail off into the sunset to help OJ find the Real Killers.

In truth, with most people still completely screwed from the 2008 economic collapse, this election should’ve gone to the Rethugs since desperate people tend to a) vote far right and b) vote out incumbents. And then they went and found the most vile and horrid candidate they could, and then they shoved Newt Gingrich outta the way and nominated Gordon Gekko himself.

I’m glad that I have class tonight so I won’t be obsessing over election returns all evening. Even thinking about it makes me sputter like Rick from The Young Ones and end every sentence “…like the fascist you are!”

@¡Andrew!: Mitt was banking on that analysis, but I’ve never bought it: To really work, it relies on voters blaming Obama for the economy. A significant number do, of course, but I’ve always doubted there would be enough to make a difference.

This is one reason I haven’t trusted Nate’s model, which also baked in that presumption. It may be an accurate historical observation, but this is not a typical election.

@Benedick: I doubt it. Everybody’s making hay out of a malfunctioning voting machine, and there are definite issues with (non-required) Voter ID, but it’s just anecdotal evidence out there today. Nothing definitive. Yet.

I’m taking the 3:30 bus home to start drinking fire up the TV and get ready for my drunken freeloading politically simpatico friends to come over later. I’m bringing some work home but the chances of it getting done are the same as Mitt going to the hoop with Michelle.

@nojo: @Benedick: Not So Nice poll lady in my rather white, mostly R district made it very clear that she wanted me to provide an ID. I spent three years working in state government, and I can just imagine what kind os script they were given by the Sec of State, who is a Republican appointee.

Did someone here say our Senate race is Ho-hum? Well, our Senator (Casey) is duller than late night CSPAN, but he very well may lose his seat to a retired Big Coal exec.

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