Bach Prelude & Fugue in A Minor (BWV 543)

Bach – pretty sure this is performed on the Flentrop Organ at Harvard:


Note perfect performance of the fugue as only E. Power Biggs could do …

@blogenfreude: Babydoll, I been trying to get hip to your jive, strippin’ down, oilin’ the bod, lighting the candles, reaching for the lube…

But, you know, my fucking lousy service makes the beach ball spin and spin. But I need to hear this.

@Benedick: Call me if you still have my number stored – I will hold up the phone so you can hear it. 212 966-9595

Bloggie, will listening to this make me feel better about having to work on Columbus Day?

There are several interesting nuggets in today’s New York Times debate post-mortem, but the one that truly surprised me is that Bain was off the table from the start. I wonder if Obama will go after Romney on it in the next debate or simply delegate that to Biden.

@mellbell: Me too. Re the debate, I suppose there is an argument that Obama chose not to go after the 47%, taxes etc because he knew that Romney would have prepared BS answers for those.

@mellbell: Ah, the good old days in academia at a state university, when we got every BS holiday on the calendar. Now I get 3 paid holidays: Thanksgiving Day, Christmas Day, and New Year’s Day. However, I no longer spend half my life in fruitless, soul-crushing meetings, so I’m still ahead.

@Dodgerblue: “Wow. That is the biggest asshole I’ve ever seen.”
Yes, I went straight to fifth grade level.

@Mistress Cynica: Car service to/from Heathrow? £28 Heathrow London. £38 London Heathrow. And the charge might differ according to terminal. Great service and reasonable for London standards. From the States dial 011 44 207 229 7576.

Why yes, we are a full-service website.

@Benedick: Thanks so much. That is a good price for London. Our schedule is now so screwed up that we’re going to be staying at the Sofitel Gatwick the night before we fly out of Heathrow (due to a flight to and from Jersey that day), so we’ll be traveling from one airport to another. And then we have to board an American Airlines flight, apparently now the equivalent of the ninth circle of hell. Lord knows how long it will take us to get home. Why does that have to be the airline for which my boss has the most frequent flyer miles? Couldn’t be Virgin Atlantic, noooooo.

@Mistress Cynica: Blessings. I will light a candle. Gatwick. Don’t leave the hotel perimeter and you should be safe. Maybe. Just don’t let them make you eat chips. Or drink the beer. The warm beer that tastes like piss. Lock your door. Keep them out. They’re after your brains as they don’t have any. There is nothing near Gatwick you want to see.

OK, just don’t ask me about Paris. I don’t want to talk about it. Why is everyone bugging me about Paris? I need some space, people. Forget Paris. I never brought it up. OK? Let it be. It is what it is. Forgotten. Never mentioned.

I will now go and watch Al Sharpton shouting at the screen and long for a stiletto. Which is a kind of knife you don’t find much in Paris.

@mellbell: I think the shoe is on the other foot for the Biden / Ryan debate. Expectations for Biden are low, but he consistently kicked ass in the 2008 Dem primary debates – always better than both Barry & Hillz. Expectations for Ryan are high, but he has never been tested at this level with this kind of intense national media scrutiny. I don’t expect him to pull a Palin, but he is perfectly capable of blowing it with a major gaffe.

Don’t get me wrong, Biden can’t win it for Obama, but I expect he’ll stop the bleeding, change the narrative and tee it up for Barry next week.

Maybe he’ll even get a few of you off the ledge and back inside where it’s safe. I’m worried about you’all.

@Mistress Cynica: American Bankrupt and we don’t give a fuck Airlines? Bring a wrench (or “spanner” as they say in the Land of Warm Beer) because you may have to bolt down your row of seats on your own.

@libertarian tool: Ryan is such a dweeb. His speaking skillz seem minimal at best. Beyond the hate fuck aspect one is not sure what he’s got on offer. (Grabbing the ears, slamming it home, take it libertarian style, show me the abs, pig boy, yeah, take it! oh yeah, who’s your daddy?)

@Dodgerblue: Not sure but one wonders if a spanner is same as wrench. One must talk to one’s man. Unfortunately he’s laying out one’s dinner clothes and can’t be disturbed.

@Benedick: Speaking of which, my wife and I may watch the first episode of Season 2 of the new Upstairs Downstairs tonight. Wallis Simpson and King Pussywhipped are not portrayed kindly.

@libertarian tool: Some of us are just glad that we have a game, again. With this economy, who can afford to be political, much less ideological? I’m betting heavily on both sides, including Romney to beat the spread (which Vegas gave me deliciously at 7 pts more than ten days ago).

I’ve got mine, Jacques

@libertarian tool: I expect he’ll stop the bleeding

Bleeding? What bleeding?

Granted, offers rolling averages, so any shift doesn’t immediately show up there. But at worst, we’re back to the solid 250-200 EV lead for Obama, with the majority of statistical ties breaking his way.

And if you remove Rasmussen from the mix, Obama’s sitting on a solid 280.

Someone might get word to Sully. He’s excitable.

@nojo: The “bleeding” is in the continuing media focus on the “Romney wins / Obama blows it” narrative . Ironically it is mostly the cries, lamentations and rending of garments from Obama supporters that keeps reopening the wound – Sully being but one example.

It should have been a two day story that was eclipsed by the report of the unemployment rate dropping under 8%. Instead we get Maher’s monologue wondering if Barry spent his contributions on weed, the SNL skit skewering the MSNBC histrionics, and daily new implausible excuses / explanations from Axelrod and unidentified campaign flacks. Now there is no indication that the continuing media proctology exam of the debate will be completed any time before Biden takes the stage.

@Beggars Biscuit: Go with a parley. Take Romney winning the popular vote straight up, Obama winning the electoral vote minus Florida, Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin, and Scott Brown with the points. You should get great odds. Bet the farm.

@libertarian tool: Gawd, that SNL sketch sucked. Fat pitch, and a whiff.

As far as the media being as excitable as Sully — OMG! HORSE RACE! — sure. It’s like what happens every time there’s a new iPhone: Geek blogs find some Fatal! Flaw!, Apple sells record numbers, and then we wait for next year’s Crushing Disappointment.

Obama’s held a steady 50-point EV lead all year — sometimes more, sometimes a lot more, sometimes less. Plus all the statistical ties that consistently break his way. He needs to win Florida, or two small states. The rest is pageviews.

The “Not the MSNBC Ad” is for “Atlas Shrugged II” opening in theaters October 12. Evidently someone with some disposable $$$ believes that lowering the bucket into a dry well a second time is the key to success.

Southern Indiana pre-election report – there are FAR more campaign signs for the candidates running for the county school board than for president, governor, senator and representative combined. I may have seen a half-dozen Romney signs and four or five Obama signs. The national races have gotten no traction here at all. There’s almost no TV advertising here since Kentucky appears solidly behind not-Obama. I’m assuming the local Teabagging patriots will make sure my vote is wasted this year, but I’ll always have 2008 to remember.

@Dave H: Are you getting any ads for the Republican running against John Yarmuth (not Anne Northup, thank Jesus)?

@Dave H: I saw the first one. I thought it would be fun in a campy, “look at the precious wingnuts” way. Turns out it was awful in a “badly acted, numbly directed, wish I had ground glass for my popcorn” way.

But I like horror movies where he bad guy wins so I’ll probably see the second one.

@Tommmcatt May Just Have Some MJ In His System As Well, So What?:

I never saw it. The reviews kept me away. Although, oddly enough, the only non-politically inspired somewhat positive review I saw was here in the official state propaganda organ of the People’s Republic of EssEff – the San Francisco Chronicle.

@Dodgerblue: Wallis Simpson and King Pussywhipped are not portrayed kindly. Dreadful people. There’s an interesting book about her living in Paris being guarded by a formidable woman lawyer who was clearly in love with her. She was in a coma for several years. The book goes into that English circle of pro-fascist exiles of which Simpson was one. They sent Windsor to Bermuda for the war to stop him being used by the Nazis when they invaded and set up a rival royal family. Of course it’s widely thought he was gay.

@nojo: Per Nate, Obama has lost roughly 18 electoral votes (equivalent to Ohio) in the last week. I’m not panicking yet, but it’s cause for some concern.

@mellbell: Nate Silver says it’s 3-1 odds for Obama.

OT/ Five Guys arrived where I lived last month. Went to see what the fuss was about. I like. Also, their idea of regular fries is… um… gimungo.

@mellbell: I’m not comfortable with the presumptions underlying Nate’s models. So, back to the charts — which are now including Debate Fallout…

Obama maintains a 332-206 EV lead, including statistical ties — which continue to break 3-1 in his favor, as they consistently have for months. Romney’s 200 votes have been consistent since July, except for brief bump when the nation briefly considered, then discarded, Paul Ryan.

Excluding the statistical ties, you can see the National Gag kicking in after the debate — but Obama is still within the consistent 225-275 range he’s held since April, which is why I use 250 votes as his base — that’s the mean he reverts to.

And Romney? His “solid” states also went down after the debate — he can usually rely on 200, but he’s dropped to 180 at the moment.

(These all include Rasmussen — keeps me from getting cocky.)

So: It means little to me whether either of them gained or lost in a given day. It’s the patterns that tell the story, and the patterns have been consistent for months. People have made up their minds. It’s all GOTV and voter supression now.

Oh, and the popular vote? Screw that. The GOP excuse in 2000 was that campaigns focus on swing states because of the Electoral College, and that a real popular-vote election would call for different strategies. I look forward to the Hypocrisy Circus if the situation is reversed in 2012.

@ManchuCandidate: Cajun or regular? And, yeah, one order is easily enough for two people, if not more.

Just got regular.

Going to lie down and sleep for a while.

@ManchuCandidate: Try the Cajun next time. They’re yummy.

Finally: Obama could lose Florida and Ohio, and still win — he only needs 20 swing-state votes. (Or today, 30.) It’s Romney who has to run the board — and to date, he’s not shown any chance of doing that. People waver in their commitment to Obama, but Romney doesn’t get the benefit.

@nojo: Nate showed my home state (not to be confused with Colorado, the other home state) to be narrowing. However, I’ll grant you the wisdom of taking the long view – along with a deep breath. But do you see how much wiggle there was in Bush-Kerry ’04? If I were part of the campaign, I’d take a page from the Doonesbury strips and start some PAC-funded LDS-boating.

@ManchuCandidate: Also, their idea of regular fries is… um… gimungoAmerican.


@Beggars Biscuit: Next you’re time near Metro Center and want a snack, go to Ollie’s Trolley (12th and E) and get an order of fries. They’re superb.

@Beggars Biscuit: I saw something in passing this morning that the Romney campaign just pulled out of Pennsylvania. Which surprises me, because I thought they already had.

And it’s the 2004 charts on that page that serve as a kind of baseline — that’s what an unpredictable campaign looks like. (Watch Kerry get swiftboated!)

Even in 2008, the trends switched briefly while America swallowed Sarah Palin. This year? Contra Sully, Romney has never been in the lead. Not even close.

The “long view” merely consists of contemplating the lines, matching them with events (allowing for a week lag), then telling a story that fits. You can see Paul Ryan being briefly considered — and then dismissed. You can see how Romney holds tight to those 200 solid votes, while Obama’s solids swing from 240 to 270. We’re not entirely happy with Obama — but when you consider the alternative…

And then, for flavor, you mix in the anecdotal evidence from the latest polls — how they seem to weigh for Thursday and Friday, when the debate fallout was at its worst, but might be recovering over the weekend. We won’t know that for a few more days, however.

If anything, a little fear in the troops is good. They don’t need Sam Jackson to cuss them out now.

@mellbell: I’ll keep that in mind. I generally flee that area at lunch time; there is a great Korean-run deli next to my secondary office where I can get a slab of meat along with some kimchi on my green salad for around $5.

Funny place. Guatemalans manning the sandwich and wrap part of the deli, and Koreans covering the soup and salad bar – and the cash register. They all like that I can greet them in their respective tongues.

@mellbell: I have no idea who the Republican candidate running against Yarmuth is, so I’ll say that I haven’t seen any ads. Since my TV watching is mostly through the DVR that could mean I’ve missed a few. I doubt there have been many GOP ads run on MSNBC.

OMG, Ollie’s Trolley. I’m slobbering. When I went to work at the federal building in downtown Louisville way back in 19 and 74, there was an Ollie’s nearby. I think John Y. Brown was involved with the chain. Anyway, the greatest fries and the burgers were enormous, delicious, and so messy you were taking a huge risk eating one for lunch.

@Dave H: I went to high school just up the street (Manual, or duPont Manual if you’re feeling fancy), so it was a frequent after-school stop. So far as I know the Louisville and DC locations are the only ones left.


The “long view” merely consists of …

While in general agreement with your conclusions, I get there with a different methodology. I just relax, close my eyes, and let whatever random deity is in the neighborhood speak through me. I believe this missive is courtesy of Shiva – Hindu god of chaos and destruction:

Romney wins the national popular vote, mostly because of Democrats in NY, IL, and CA who know their state is going overwhelmingly for Obama anyway and can’t be bothered to vote. Romney takes Florida but loses Ohio and loses the electoral vote. Ohio will tell the tale. If for some reason Obama fails to take Ohio it means he’ll also lose the election. Losing Ohio is an indicator that something much bigger is wrong with his campaign – something along the line of the Sullivapocalyse, and it means everything close will break Romney. He won’t make it up with smaller states. And The SF Giants get swept in 3 lose in 4 win in five… – Shiva

@mellbell: Now it’s 22 electoral votes (equivalent to Ohio and New Hampshire). Again, not panicking, just concerned.

@libertarian tool: Obama can actually lose Florida and Ohio, and still win — I’ve been watching that calculation for a month or two. He wins either one, and Romney’s blocked out.

But first, we wait for the mouse to pass through the snake. The polls right now are reflecting a late-week gag reflex, which is a good moment to tend your garden.

@Dave H: Ollie’s Trolley at S 3rd St and W. Kentucky Ave in Louisville (38.238863N, -85.758107W) was still serving when I enjoyed an Ollieburger and fries this past April.

And yes, John Y. Brown, Jr. was behind Ollie’s Trolley after he sold out KFC. Anybody remember Lum’s?

@nojo: As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. All will be well in the garden. In the garden, growth has it seasons. First comes spring and summer, but then we have fall and winter. And then we get spring and summer again. –Chance the Gardener

@libertarian tool: “Been there, done that.” —Candide.

@mellbell: You know the weird thing? Romney’s not picking up any states. The “solid” Obama vote is now the worst it’s been all year — but still ahead. Meanwhile, Obama still gets the lion’s share of the statistical ties.

Nothing’s changed for Romney — Obama’s losses aren’t his gains. What we’re seeing, post-debate, is a loss of confidence — but not a change of mind.

That’s why I like those charts. They tell a story I don’t hear elsewhere. It’s the context, not the moment.

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